What is the future of Vietnam like?

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What's the future of Vietnam like?
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If CIA stop funding Vietnamese trouble makers in US and VN.

I foresee few years from now Vietnam will grow into becoming another China in economic terms perhaps not as big but it will definitely be felt by the world with more Made in Vietnam products.

If you look around the Vietnamese society today, there are many hardworking people around which will help the economy growth but there are also many trouble makers within the country receive fundings from outside (especially CIA and perhaps some from India as well), never miss an opportunity to stir up sentiments in the county to promote hatred among the local people to hate foreigners in VN including foreign investors.The Chinese investors in particularly are aways the target regardless you are from China Mainland, Taiwan, Singapore or Malaysia . Of course you might argue these people are not significant investors to Vietnam economy but wait, if you do your analysis, you will know how big the portion of investment in VN are actually coming from these people. Scaring off these people will not help shaping VN economy in a way China did in the last 3–4 decades.

To achieve high and sustainable growth VN need a lot of work in particularly the infrastructure like clean uninterrupted water supply and power supplies, there are areas currently is still in low standard compare to surrounding country even though VN may offer quite a good internet access speed.

VN must open up investment in this infrastructure area foreign investors must be allow to invest in it including investor from China, which is currently one of the bigger infrastructure investor in the world. However, as the VN peoples are so hostile towards Chinese investors in these area, I doubt VN will have to relies on western investments which is normally bound by condition like human rights condition, democracy, corruption index etc which can be very hard for VN to accept too.

Therefore, i would suggest all foreign influence should stay out of VN business, so to allow VN a very stable and investors friendly environment, give VN another 5–10 years, we will surely feel the presence of VN around us.

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Vietnamese leadership continue to succeed in balancing moderate economic prosperity, equitable distribution, social inclusion as well as environmental sustainability. That’s the future of Vietnam.

Contrary to some Vietnamese being obssessed with “miraculous rise” of China, Japan and South Korea (and these countries’ obsession with explosive growth), Vietnamese leadership seems to realize long ago that GDP is a very deceptive measure or that it is not a measure of wealth at all. It basically measures the level of “economic activity”, but not how much of that is *productive* instead of just wastes. Not only does it not control for the cost of recovering from damage, it also fails to account for cost of living and has inconsistent and dubiously useful ways to deal with goods that are produced but not purchased. GDP is extremely susceptible to something called the 'broken window fallacy,' where the cost of repairs as a result of someone breaking windows effectively *boosts* GDP despite increasing operating costs and reducing productivity of things other than window replacements. You literally can print money out of thin air and pay people to repeatedly build and blow up a bridge until you hit any GDP target you like. If not a bridge, empty apartments that in the process of building, concrete over valuable arable lands, for example.

GDP is a poor metric for economic health, growth, outlook, and citizen outcomes. The guy who *created* GDP, Simon Kuznets, said that it's "not a measure of how well we are all doing." It's so baffling and counter-intuitive that we've come to rely on this metric, to the clear detriment of everyone.

Let me provide a very simple example: assume you have a happy family of a couple and two children. There are one or two income and they spend modestly on, the essentials. and save the rest. What would happen to GDP if they get divorce? There will be an instant boost in GDP. They need to pay for lawyers' fees, court fees, the real estate agent cost to sell one house, divide up the money, buy two new houses, additional baby sitting cost, extra lessons to keep the little ones busy, depression and loneliness cost (gaming, entertainment, streaming services, etc ...).

A healthy person contribute little to GDP. A fat person to eats too much, get fat, pay for personal trainer to lose the weight, get hospitalised from obesity-related diseases, continued healthcare from chronic disease is a boom to GDP.

One of the biggest problems with GDP is that it ignores opportunity cost. This overindexes the impact of government expenditure. For example, if the government spent $1m on a program which the market could deliver at $250k, this is imputed as $1m of GDP, rather than a -$750k hit to GDP.

If you don't like my examples, here is Joseph Sitglitz, a Nobel-winning economist, talking about it.

Here's him again on where to go beyond it.

Note the year 2011. Here's the conference reporting the results of an OECD panel talking about how we should actually measure "the things that matter" next.

Here's Stiglitz writing it again in 2019 It's time to retire metrics like GDP. They don't measure everything that matters | Joseph Stiglitz then 2020 GDP Is the Wrong Tool for Measuring What Matters . and finally, here's the OECD's Better Life Initiative OECD Better Life Index

Now, the best author I've ever seen/heard talking about economic development for less developed country is Michael Pettis . He pointed out that it's actually not all that tricky to force development of a less developed country. Less developed countries need savings while not having that much. So they way you do it is to force down the domestic consumption and take that money and go build anything from bridges, roads, highways, to factories. Many countries' development has been labelled miraculous but if dozens of them have achieved growth rate of 10% or more for decades, then are miracles really miraculous?

The side effect of that is while the economy rise very fast, the workers and households are actually screwed over because their wage growth and domestic consumption as % of GDP actually goes down. In other words, countries that do well in exports manage to do so by subsidising export by cutting workers' wages.

China and Singapore has very low domestic consumption as % of GDP, around 35-40%. South Korea about 49%, Indonesia around 58%, and Vietnam is about 68%. Vietnamese workers are roughly better compensated relative to their level of productivity than most; wage growth has been far higher than GDP growth. And productivity growth has continued to double during the past decade. China’s productivity growth and wage growth had contracted sharply while Japan’s and South Korea’s is nearly ZERO (with much lower wages on OECD average). These three have workers spending chronically long hours at work, among the highest in the world with much lower productivity per person than Western states.

Note that as every country in the Sino culture sphere develops, their birth rates crashed through the floor: China, Japan, Taiwan, Singapore, South Korea, etc while their (corporate, government or household) debt skyrocketed. It is the consequence of subsidizing unproductive investments for the sake of employment from output surplus that can only be absorbed by either unemployment or debt. I use the Sino culture since it equalises the cultural factor. Young people in these places just don't care enough to meet new people, form long-term relationship, and have children. You dig deeper and there are epidemics of loneliness, depression, exhaustion, burnouts among the urban young.

My question is: if that's the path to economic development, is it worth it? Doesn't the economy exist to serve us, to make our lives easier and better and not the other way around? Everything seems to be sacrificed at the altar of "the economy" in Singapore, China, Taiwan, or Japan: family, children, community, nations, etc ... They never came to grip with that issue.

I have come to rely on much simpler measurements that already exist: Total Fertility Rate + Life Expectancy. If both drop too much, there is something fundamentally wrong, regardless of what the GDP number says.

Vietnam’s Life Expectancy is already on par with China, about 9 years below Japan and 8 years below South Korea at a much lower level of economic development. But that doesn't make a flashy story like GDP growth, isn't it? Even though the population is living longer, healthier and enjoying better economic fruits after decades of war and famine.

In terms of Total Fertility Rate, Vietnam never managed to destroy its demographic future. With the ageing crisis coming across the globe, China’s is following the path of Japan’s and South Korea’s grim and predictable demographic winter for the remainder of this century while Vietnam still looks like it can buy itself some time to prepare and enjoy the “demographic dividend” for the two or so decades to come. A shrinking population means smaller workforce, and a smaller market, and if productivity won't rise enough, we have the elderly population chasing a fraction of what we as a society could produce previously. Your savings is only worth a fraction as much otherwise.

You can cope with the loss of children being born, temporarily, by immigration from places still with high birthrates; but those places are now few, far in between, and with very foreign cultures: India, the Middle East (Muslims and Arabs), and Africa. Singapore pays for its very high GDP with very low birth rate and Indian immigrants, which causes a lot of political problems. Is it worth it?

Historically, kinship group provides all the functions that a modern state provides: security, social safety net, etc ... When you transfer some of that functions and responsibilities from family to the state, you can atomise the family. Anthropological studies suggest that places that evolve to having smaller families are associated with regions having severe weather where people have to move about a lot. Ironically, capitalism puts us into the same situation where we are thrown about by the whims of the market. In the same way that we occasionally have dysfunctional families, we do have dysfunctional aspects of the state in providing those functions that kinship groups used to provide. Case in point, COVID response.

I've always love this piece , particularly, the sections by Edward Luttwak.

"The market," he says, "invades every sphere of life," producing a "hellish society." In the same way that market values once threatened national security, they now threaten the economic and spiritual well-being of society. "An optimal production system is a completely inhuman production system," he explains, "because...you are constantly changing the number of people you employ, you're moving them around, you're doing different things, and that is not compatible with somebody being able to organize an existence for himself."

"I believe that one ought to have only as much market efficiency as one needs, because everything that we value in human life is within the realm of inefficiency—love, family, attachment, community, culture, old habits, comfortable old shoes."

People don't like being lonely, so something will fill that hole. Addictions of all kinds (internet, sex, drugs, gaming, etc...), New Age religions and cults (you probably can notice how large cults tend to also be in developed countries. That Shincheonji church in South Korea, Aum Shinrikyo in Japan, Scientology, numerous Evangelical churches in Singapore and Taiwan, Falun Gong among the Chinese diaspora.) Christianity in Vietnam remain shockingly vanilla: Catholics, Anglicans, etc ... Different Internet movements and groups: incels, MGTOW, Red/Black Pills, anti-vax, conspiracy theory, etc ...

Is this really what we want to build on from as a (on paper) economically prosperous society?

The focus of Vietnamese government should be about making as much thing as possible, lasting for as long as possible, at as low cost as possible, to benefit as much people as possible. After that, they can forget about GDP and focus on accumulate wealth instead of GDP growth and debt. In other words, they should provide funding for things and services that are important and socially productive, but not financially profitable: like infrastructure, research and development, education, healthcare, public health, etc ...

Currently, the Vietnamese gover

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In regards to the telecommunications market, Vietnam has had a strong mobile phone penetration. The future growth for fixed broadband connections in Vietnamese households is likely to remain solid. The market aims to launch the new 5G network by the year 2021 with a lot of opportunities for adoption and investments from both local and foreign investors.

Below is a forecast of how the telecommunications market in Vietnam will play out in 2025.

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Very bright.

On the one hand, Vietnam can learn from China's experience and lessons.

On the other hand, Vietnam's size can avoid some of the problems encountered in China's development. In other words, it reduces the complexity and difficulty of the problem.

If the Chinese model is feasible, then the Vietnamese version of the Chinese model will also be feasible.

But there are still many traps. For example, the soldiers are out of control and run a business. How to guide foreign capital instead of being controlled by it.

The biggest problem is how to deal with the relationship with China and create a peaceful external condition.

Vietnam’s market size is smaller than that of China, and it is more difficult to use the market in exchange for bargaining chips. It needs to choose its economic partners carefully. I still think it is in the best interests of Vietnam to integrate with the Chinese market. China is the closest geographically, with similar culture and institutions. Not bad choice.

Vietnam needs several characteristic pillar industries, rather than the development of all industries like China and the United States. This is the prerogative of the superpower. In fact, the United States subcontracted some industries to his allies. Pragmatism is the secret to success.

I think some answers are too pessimistic. Vietnam does not need to replace China. Vietnam will integrate into the Chinese economic circle, just as Japan and South Korea have integrated into the Western-led international trading system. It may be difficult to break through 20,000 per capita GDP, but 10,000 per capita GDP is not difficult for Vietnam. Step by step.

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Have population young, the workers are hard work, smart, creation…, the goverment is clear, dynamic. I’m sure Vietnam will become a dragon of Asia in the 21 century.

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Bright or dark? I will say it between. Vietnam may reach a medium-to-high income level of around 8,000 per capita GDP in 15 years. But it is impossible to become a developed region like South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong and Singapore. With the development of artificial intelligence technology. Vietnam is also unlikely to replicate China’s economic miracle. With the development of science and technology, the world will be polarized. Developed countries are getting richer. Backward countries are getting poorer.

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Vietnam will be prosperous in the Future all because of Foreign Investments to her Economy. However; I dont believe that Vietnam will replace China as the Factory of the World. She has a smaller land area and a smaller population to entertain all of the World’s Industries. Vietnam; together with South East Asian nations will dominate World trade in the future.

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I think Vietnam will become the next world factory!

In recent years, Vietnam has attracted more and more attention from the world. More and more entrepreneurs have set their sights on this hot spot in Southeast Asia. Many people pursue the so-called Vietnamese model, claiming that Vietnam has the conditions to become a new world factory in the future, and The so-called conditions in Vietnam are nothing more than advantages in terms of labor, land and demographic dividends. Whether Vietnam can truly become a factory in the world, an emerging country in Southeast Asia, and even the fifth dragon in Asia will take time to prove. However, if we go back in history, we may be able to see the future development trend of Vietnam from the past Vietnamese history.

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Fast-growing Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam

Vietnam claims to be a descendant of dragons and immortals, saying that it has a long history of five thousand years. However, the true history of Vietnam was first recorded in the history books of the Chinese Zhou Dynasty. At that time, Vietnam was known as Yueshang or Jiaozhi. "Shangshu Biography · Guihe":

In the south of Jiaozhi, there is Yueshang State. Zhou Gongju has been intimidating for six years, making rituals and making music, and the world is peaceful. Yue Shang presented the white pheasant with three images and nine translations: The road is long, and the mountains and rivers are blocked.

Vietnam ’s earliest surviving history book, "The History of Vietnam", described Vietnam as the 15 tribes of the Vietnamese during the Yellow Emperor and did not return to the rule of the Yellow Emperor.

In the past, the Yellow Emperor built a nation, with Jiaozhi far in the face of Baiyue, and it belonged to Mo Neng. It was bounded in the southwest corner. Its tribes are very famous. Lu Hai, Tang Quan, Xinchang, Pingwen, Wenlang, Jiuzhen, Nichinan, Huai Xiang, and Jiu De are all unattainable to Yu Gong.

Until the Qin Dynasty unified the six countries, merged south with Lingnan, and established three counties, of which the Xiang county is now in northern Vietnam. Qin Wangqin defeated Zhao Tuo in the South Vietnam Kingdom against the Western Han Dynasty, and later became a Han state. Emperor Wu of the Han Dynasty took advantage of the civil strife in South Vietnam, and Han merged with South Vietnam to establish nine counties. Among them, Nichinan, Jiaozhi, and Jiuzhen were located in Vietnam, which was later called Jiaozhou. In the 1000 years of Lebanon from the Han Dynasty to the Five Dynasties and Ten Countries, Vietnam and China had a territorial relationship. Vietnam was always a county under the unified control of the Chinese feudal dynasty. The Han dynasty was based on the ancient saying of Jiaozhi that Vietnam was first referred to as Jiaozhou, Anandu was established in the early Tang Dynasty, and then Vietnam was not called Annan. In the five dynasties and ten countries, Annan local tyrants followed the example of the mainland's feudal rulers. When Zhao Kuangyin reigned in Vietnam, the tyrants of the dynasty ruled Annan and established the first dynasty in Vietnam. Since then, Vietnam has experienced the Ding Li Li Chen dynasty, and all the systems followed the Song dynasty, just like a central dynasty, which was part of the Han cultural circle.

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Han Tao unearthed from the Han Tomb in Vietnam

The economic development of ancient Vietnam is no exception, imitating to learn from China and relying on China. Among them, China's pottery technology deeply affected Vietnam. As early as the Han Dynasty, the Central Plains Taishou stationed in Jiaozhou passed the pottery technology to Vietnam at that time. Modern Vietnamese archaeology has unearthed many Han dynasty ceramics on the cemeteries and ruins of the Han dynasty. These unearthed Jiaozhou Han pottery and northern glazed wares are quite similar in material and calcination technology, shape and decoration, and are far better at At the same time in other parts of Southeast Asia. During the Three Kingdoms period, Jiaozhou was annexed by Soochow, and the history book once stated that Soochow had dispatched Jiaozhou potters to go to Wugu Metropolitan Construction Service for several times.

Vietnam has become a vassal state of the Central Plains dynasty since the independence of the Song dynasty. In the past dynasties, the monarchs changed or major events occurred in the Central Plains. Vietnam will send envoys to the tributary of the Central Plains. beneficial. Therefore, since the independence of Vietnam, ceramic technology in various dynasties has been moving towards China, especially in the monochromatic glaze and iron embroidered pottery of the Li Chen period, mainly affected by the kiln system in China ’s Cizhou, but its folk customs always have its own characteristics, so also Develop ceramics with Vietnamese characteristics. After studying the Vietnamese ceramics, the orientalist Ge Lubo of the French Far East Academy in Hanoi in the French period said that it has a curious local flavor and is an independent tradition.

In the history, the Vietnamese dynasty also imitated China to establish the Yazong vassal, and gave the porcelain that is regarded as the representative of advanced civilization to the countries that came to the tribute. Siamese king Vietnamese porcelain.

In November, Shaoping Ding Si, the Siamese country sent his embassy Cha Gang to wait for tribute. The emperor used the book to make it back, and in addition to this year's drawing, also cited, divided the previous year's example by half a point, 20 points, and a reward. The lord of the country gave 20 pieces of silk, 30 pieces of porcelain bowls, 5 pieces of silk from the concubine, 3 pieces of porcelain bowls, and 35 pieces per piece.

Vietnamese ceramics were considered by other countries as products of China because they imitated China. The most obvious thing here is the historical blue and white porcelain from the Annan Li Dynasty. Ceramics, as a synonym for China, were sold overseas via the Maritime Silk Road during the Song Dynasty. They were loved by Arab merchants and brought to Europe, where they became the most luxurious Chinese goods in Europe at that time. After Yongle sailed to the west in the Ming Dynasty, the Ming Dynasty imposed a strict sea ban policy, and Song Yuan ’s overseas trade was forced to stop, and Chinese porcelain was not exported overseas. The porcelain in the Arab market and the European market was in short supply. At that time, the blue and white porcelain of the Li dynasty, which imitated China's Annan, then took advantage of the trend to fill the market gap left by Chinese ceramics.

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Vietnamese blue and white and colorful peacock pattern plate

Vietnamese blue and white porcelain production technology was developed after the reunification of the Ming Dynasty in the Yongle period of Ming Dynasty. Thanks to the 20-year rule of the Ming Dynasty in Yongxuan, the Vietnamese learned the blue and white porcelain production technology. After Annan, the Li Dynasty separated from the Ming Dynasty and restored the so-called "Greater Vietnam" After Vietnam's stabilization, Vietnam's blue and white porcelain skills have been developed, and the blue and white blue and white flowers in Nance Prefecture are the most beautiful. It is also because of this background that Annan blue and white porcelain, which is similar to Jingdezhen blue and white porcelain, is often "taken by the Arabs" and sold to Europe. Although Annan blue and white porcelain does not have the rich and powerful posture of Jingdezhen blue and white porcelain, its temperature The graceful and restrained beauty is also popular in Asia and Europe. The export of Annan blue and white porcelain reached a golden period in the 15th and 16th centuries. At that time, in the Ryukyu Kingdom's Shuri King City, Javanese Manchu King Yi King Palace, Turkey's Gunmen Palace, Iran's Adbir Temple, Annan blue and white porcelain were very popular.

The blue and white porcelain of the Li Dynasty after the collection of the Tokabi Palace Museum in Istanbul is written with "Pei's pen of the craftsman of Nance Prefecture in the eighth year of Taihe (1450)".

Due to the vigorous maritime trade in Vietnam at that time, the Vietnamese ceramic technology has undergone changes and innovations, and the blue and white porcelain produced by it presents the characteristics of many cultural blends. These fine porcelains of Vietnam are sold to Europe and Asia through the Maritime Silk Road, but because of the unpredictability of technology or climate, and the shipwreck accidents at sea, these seabed treasures have been salvaged by archaeology in modern times and become today's wedge.

Blue-and-white porcelain from the post-Li Dynasty period salvaged from Vietnam

At the end of the 17th century (approximately during the Wanli period of the Ming Dynasty), Annan supported the post-Li Zheng dynasty Zheng and the Mo dynasty who usurped the post-Li regime to wage a long-term war, but Annan ’s blue and white ceramic base Nance (now Haiyang, Vietnam (Province) was destroyed, resulting in the destruction of the Vietnamese ceramic industry, and since the Longqing switch of the Ming Dynasty, Chinese blue and white porcelain once again occupied the Asian and European markets.

The "Western and Eastern Foreign Languages ​​Test Paper" will be published next year. Longqing will change the country next year. Fujian Governor Du Shi Tu Zemin will open the sea to ban the sale of things.

Under the strong influence and impact of Chinese blue-and-white porcelain, Vietnamese blue-and-white porcelain gradually lost its competitiveness and has since been obliterated and unknown.

This history of Vietnam was a moment of glory while the Ming Dynasty of the Forbidden Sea was "sleeping", and today Vietnam is taking advantage of the wind of industrial transfer to undertake the industries of various countries and realize the rise of Vietnam.

Reference materials: "Shang Shu", "Yue Shilue", "Da Yue Shi Ji Quan Shu"

Papers: "Talking about Ceramic Art in Vietnam", "A Preliminary Study of the Relationship between Yunnan and China's Ancient Blue and White Porcelain"

Other "Vietnamese Blue-and-White Croquettes-Supply, Substitution and Parallel Products on the Road to Ceramics"

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Empirical data from 1945 till now showing that Vietnam has no future under leadership of the evil dictatorship Vietnamese communist party. But Vietnam has no choices to be different!

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Can you say “traffic hellhole”?

Cars are extremely expensive in Vietnam. The tariff is around100%. Countries that already have traffic problems, like Mongolia, get cheap second-hand cars from South Korea and Japan, which is fun because Korean cars are left-hand drive (like Americans) and Japanese cars are right hand drive (like England).

Anyway, to build its export economy (Vietnam grows a lot of food) it agreed to lift its tariffs, which means cars will become very affordable.

And that poses a massive problem

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Ho Chi Minh city (formerly Saigon) has a metropolitan population of about 10 million. However, most of the population rides scooters. Even then, the scooters clog the roads. In a very short period of time, Vietnam will have a lot more cars, and there just isn’t room for them. Other world cities, like Lima, went through the same problem - the number of cars roughly doubled in a decade and traffic slowed to a stop.

The current estimate to ease congestion is about $4 billion.

And scooters already are used for just about everything you could possibly think of in Vietnam.

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